Jump-starting Oslo’s stagnant cycling revolution

Cycling and Traffic in Oslo

The last 10 years in Oslo have resulted in more cars on the road, a significant increase in bicycle infrastructure, increased promotion of cycling, but not many more cyclists. Here is an assessment of Oslo’s planning policies and objectives for cycling, electric vehicles and traffic in general to better understand how are interacting.

The Policy Direction

Oslo Kommune outlined bold targets in 2015 to reduce the use of private vehicles and increase the proportion of trips made by bicycle within the city. Primarily to:

• Increase the mode share proportion of cycling [from 8% in 2015] to 16% by 2025 (The City of Oslo’s Bicycle Strategy 2015-2025, Oslo Kommune 2015)

• Reduce vehicle traffic by 20% by 2023 and by one-third by 2030 compared with 2015 levels, (Climate Strategy for Oslo towards 2030, Oslo Kommune 2020).

 And at a National Level, the Government’s National Transport Plans 2022-2033 aims to:

• Increase cycling’s share in urban areas shall be around 20% and 8% nationwide.

• Achieve zero growth in passenger traffic by car in the major urban areas

• Contribute to ensuring that more people choose climate-friendly modes of transport, such as cycling and public transport

• Ensure goods distribution in the biggest city centres are done so with virtually zero emissions by 2030.

• Reduce transport sector emissions by 50% by 2030.

Investments in Cycling Infrastructure

Oslo Kommune has provided significant improvements to cycling infrastructure and the cycling network through an investment of 4.3 billion NOK between 2015-2025, with an additional 9 billion NOK proposed by the Bicycle Investment Plan for future projects. This has resulted in some positive outcomes:

• Increased perception of Oslo as a safe city to ride in from 9% in 2014 to 31% in 2022 (Attitude Survey About Cycling in Oslo, Oslo Kommune 2022)

• Statistics Norway data has identified the amount of municipal roads adapted for cycling has increased from 116.5km to 173.3km, equivalent to a change from 10.2% to 14.9% of municipal roads adapted for cycling.

The Electric Vehicle Revolution is Real and Incentivised

Promoting cycling as a preferred mode of transport has coincided with arguably the world's most successful uptake of electrical vehicles.

VAT and import tax subsidies, road tax reductions, parking and toll road incentives on electric vehicles and investment in infrastructure have contributed to sales of EV skyrocketing to over 59% of new car sales in 2020 (Statistics Norway 2022).

Trends show the decline of petrol and diesel passenger vehicles in favour of electric and hybrid alternatives. This positively contributes to a reduction of emissions from passenger vehicles. But an electric car on the road remains a car on the road. In Oslo, the average annual distance travelled per vehicle by petrol and diesel car has reduced while each electric vehicle is travelling further (in-part courtesy of advancements in range).

The allure of sales tax savings, toll roads fee reductions, cheap inner-city parking and charging electric vehicles has hindered the ability of Oslo to achieve its 2030 traffic reduction and cycling targets. Resulting in traffic volumes trending in the wrong direction from their 2025 and 2030 targets and the proportion of daily trips made by bike stagnating at 7% in 2021.

Above highlights the impact of covid-19 on public transportation use, with public transport trips in 2019 shifting to walking trips, cars and bicycles. Where walking has consolidated its 2020 growth to become the most prominent transport mode in 2021 for shorter style trips, cycling has declined from its 2020 peak.

The Report Card

Oslo Kommune 2025 Target: Increase the mode share proportion of cycling to 16% by 2025 (C-)

Oslo Kommune data Cycling has reduced its daily share of trips from 8% in 2015 to 7% in 2021…despite significant investment in cycling infrastructure, a global pandemic encouraging active transport as an alternative to public transport and increased public perception of Oslo as a safe cycling city.

Oslo Kommune Target: Reduce vehicle traffic by 20% by 2023 and by one-third by 2030 compared with 2015 levels (D+)

The total number of annual road kilometres driven increased by 1.9% (70,200,000 additional driven kms). Additionally, car ownership and use in Oslo in on the rise, an additional 18 639 cars are registered in Oslo Kommune in 2021 compared to 2015 (Statistics Norway 2022).

The levels of fossil fuel based vehicles registered in Oslo Kommune is trending in the right direction but the current strategies need additional support to meet Oslo Kommune’s targets for increased cycling and decreased driving (irrespective of fuel type).

Barriers to entry for cycling

Unfortunately the one thing new infrastructure can’t change is the topography of the city. Unlike the cycling utopias of Amsterdam and Copenhagen, Oslo city centre consists of many hills with the suburbs rising up and away from Oslofjord. 

Despite the improved infrastructure and perception of safety, topographical constraints coupled with the high cost of new and used cycling equipment present barriers to cycling within the city that have yet to be overcome for many. 

Going slow up the steep hills in traffic can be mentally and physically challenging for all cyclists. Often leading to silly thoughts like…should I be on this road? Am I holding up traffic? Are the drivers annoyed? Maybe I should just jump off and get out of the way…. 

Facilitating the shift of medium-long daily trips from the car to the bike presents a pathway to quickly achieve the fast-approaching dates for targets set by Oslo Kommune by getting more people on bike and more people out of cars.

Electrical and financial assistance might be just what's needed to eliminate these barriers and reinvigorate Oslo Kommune’s cycling objectives.

An Opportunity - January 1, 2023

A significant opportunity to rejuvenate Oslo’s cycling revolution commences on January 1, 2023, when Norway will apply their 25% VAT on the value of electric vehicles over 500,000 NOK, with all EVs under 500,000 NOK remaining VAT free. The opportunity lies in how best to utilise this additional tax windfall.

Utilising a portion of this tax revenue to subsidise the purchase and repair of bicycles, e-bikes and cargo bikes will provide a significant saving of 25% for residents. Electricity prices have hit historical highs in 2022, along with inflation resulting in a 13.1% increase in food and drink prices over the past year (Statistics Norway 2022).  

Oslo has laid the literal groundwork for this shift through its expanded infrastructure network and has improved the perception of safety of cycling within the city.

Reducing this potential barrier to entry for many is critical to facilitating an increase in cycling within both urban and rural areas. Given both facilitate reduced emissions associated with transport, it is only logical that the VAT savings be applied to both the electric car and cycling industry.

A VAT subsidy program on the sale and repair for bikes, e-bikes and cargo bikes make cycling an easier, more affordable and attractive transport mode option. Hopefully one day convincing the residents of Oslo to ditch the new Tesla in favour of a new or repaired e-cargo bike.

This is just one intervention to help jump-start Oslo’s cycling revolution, get in touch below or via my LinkedIn to collaborate additional strategies.